Stress Test
Monte Carlo and scenario analysis
5,000 trials of the student-t (fat tails) model, run in the browser. Returns are serially correlated, inflation is stochastic, spending can flex on guardrails, longevity varies by trial, and a long-term care shock can strike late in life.
Success rate
99.8%
0.0% met 0% of spending
Median ending value
$9.26M
Mean $11.1M
5th percentile (CVaR)
$3.40M
Worst-5% average $2.34M
Median max drawdown
27.9%
Median depletion year 10
Engine settings
Spending guardrails
Cut spending 10% after a bad stretch, raise it after a good one.
Stochastic longevity
Horizon varies around age 92.
Long-term care shock
$110K/yr for 3 years at 35% probability.
Portfolio outcome fan
Percentile bands across all trials. The shaded core is the 25th–75th percentile; the outer band spans the 5th to 95th.
Distribution of ending values
Fat-tailed models widen both ends: more ruin paths and more very large outcomes.
Probability of depletion by year
Cumulative share of trials that have run out of portfolio assets.
Sample trial paths
A random subset of individual trials, showing how sequence of returns — not just average return — decides the outcome.
Deterministic return-sequence scenarios
Historical and hypothetical sequences applied to the same starting portfolio and spending plan.
| Scenario | Description | First 3 years | Inflation | Ending value | Depletes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Expected return every year with baseline inflation. | 5.1% · 5.1% · 5.1% | 2.5% | $17,025,359 | Survives |
| Early Bear Market | Two-year drawdown immediately at retirement — classic sequence risk. | -20.0% · -10.0% · 0.0% | 2.5% | $8,969,441 | Survives |
| 1973–74 Repeat | Deep back-to-back losses paired with high inflation. | -17.4% · -29.4% · 31.0% | 5.5% | $7,062,912 | Survives |
| 2008 Shock | A single -37% year followed by a sharp recovery. | -37.0% · 26.4% · 15.0% | 2.5% | $12,430,869 | Survives |
| Lost Decade | Ten years of near-zero real returns, then normal returns. | 2.0% · 2.0% · 2.0% | 2.5% | $8,615,123 | Survives |
| Inflation Shock | Normal returns but persistent 4.5% inflation on spending. | 5.1% · 5.1% · 5.1% | 4.5% | $15,450,732 | Survives |
| Stagflation | Weak returns and high inflation at the same time. | -8.0% · -5.0% · 1.0% | 5.0% | $3,844,868 | Survives |
The engine starts from $4.85M of investable assets and $37K of first-year portfolio withdrawals, net of $0 in Social Security and pension income — consistent with the Fill 22% Bracket projection. Simulations model market and longevity risk only; they do not re-run the full tax engine inside each trial.